Tories 1, UKIP 0

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So, no real surprises yesterday in the by-elections? Well, yes, I suppose there were one or two.

I expected the turnout to be dire, not least of all because of storm Doris. Let’s face it, would you have turned out to vote in that crap if you didn’t have to? I wouldn’t. Not for a by-election.

UKIP didn’t contest Copeland and Labour are anti-nuclear, so with the regions biggest employer being Sellafield, you can’t really see the locals voting for the party of the working man when that party wants to put all those working men out of work. The Tories are crowing over it – especially as it’s been over 30 years since a sitting government beat the opposition in a by-election. You can’t blame them but I reckon Labour lost the seat rather than the Tories won it.

Stoke was different. Project Smear was in full swing and the Nutter didn’t help himself with his nonsense over Hillsborough. The locals might be heavily Brexit, but the Tories are making all the right noises so why vote UKIP? There are also people in Stoke who would rather pluck their eyeballs out than see the shambles that Labour has become. “We vote Labour. We always vote Labour. We never vote Tory. Ever. Ever.”

And the Lib Dems were they’re usual bloody nuisance self by splitting the anti Labour vote thus assuring a victory for Snell – an odious little man if ever there was one. If this is best Labour can do for a candidate, then they really are in terminal decline. Yes, I know they won, but I refer you to the previous paragraph.

UKIP’s problem is a bit like Scotland where they want to stay in the EU and the UK. The two are contradictory. Stoke want to leave the EU, but they don’t want a UKIP MP.

So let’s see what happens next. Corbyn’s going nowhere and more MPs are sure to leave the sinking Marxist ship. Could be a lively few years coming up…

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4 responses to “Tories 1, UKIP 0

  1. When you say UKIP didn’t contest Copeland Mr D do you know something we don’t and mean they didn’t ‘seriously’ contest Copeland by putting a no-hoper in there? Fiona Mills came fourth behind the Limp/Dumbs.

    • Pretty much ignored it and threw everything at Stoke. Beaten by the Libs? Says it all. Wasn’t on their ‘target’ list and from what I remember candidates foot their own bills unless that’s changed now….

  2. Doubtless the weather played a part in the turnout numbers – and that usually favours those who absolutely MUST see change. Only 36.7% of registered voters did so – and that’s pretty impressive given what was chucking out of the sky for most of their day.

    Although I had hoped to see Nuttal win, I felt that business of what was on his web site was taking things a little too far. Seems he’s not responsible for the content and someone else fronted up for the error, but it gave the impression that Paul is distinctly cavalier about checking things – and his excuse was lame.

    To my mind a good boss never lets a subordinate carry the can. His site, his responsibility.

    Nevertheless Stoke’s way down on Ukip’s list of winnable seats – no. 78 it seems, so Nuttal was taking one heck of a gamble.

    He did however increase their share of the vote from 22.6 to 24.7, however the Tories and the Lib/Dems did so as well. At the expense of Labour and The Greens.

    But the big kicker is that constituency disappears at the 2020 elections, so even if Nuttal had won, it would have been a Pyrrhic victory.

    http://www.libdemvoice.org/stoke-on-trent-byelection-lib-dem-vote-share-more-than-doubles-53400.html

    There is another point of view here (expressed frequently on Guido’s comments) that one success story was essential in order to keep Mr. Corbyn as leader of Labour.

    Nuttal still has his MEP seat for now. He’s still leader of Ukip and he now has a far better idea of who his mortal enemies are in the party. Hopefully the guy’ll start getting serious about exactly where Ukip wants to position itself for a 2020 election – and based on what actually happened in Copeland (share drops from 15.5 to 6.5%), he’s got his work cut out for him.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Copeland_by-election,_2017

    What I take from this is Labour has nothing to crow about – and is likely to continue to wither by-election by by-election. For now Mrs. May is in a stronger position within her party – and her tiny majority has grown by 1.

    Compare that to what happened under Cameron – and the lady’s done good.

    The only questions that remain to be answered are:

    Was Ukip’s performance in Stoke representative of what may happen at the next by-election? Or was Copeland nearer the mark?