Apparently our economy might shrink by 6% by 2030 if we leave the EU as opposed to 3.5% if we stay in. So according to Georgie, we’re all going to be £4,800 a year worse off by leaving.
No. That’s nonsense.
Firstly he’s actually saying that we’ll all be better off but just not as much better off. He’s saying we could have a million more unemployed at 6% where as if it’s 3.5% we’d have around 600,000 more unemployed anyway. So it’s not an extra million, it’s an extra 400,000. But that doesn’t sound so scary does it?
Secondly where the hell does he get the £4,800 figure from? That’s overall wealth not money in your pocket. You can’t spend the value of your house for example. Or the value of the shares in your pension fund. No, it sounds scary but it doesn’t actually mean anything.
But the Chancellor points out that these are OFFICIAL figures. Well, so were the ones in the OBR report he commissioned. They were official weren’t they? They disagree with him and say the effect on the UK economy of Brexit would be too small to forecast one way or the other. These figures come from the IMF who, as an international body, have a biased and vested interest in a remain vote. Hardly impartial then are they?
Mark Carney’s assessment at the Bank of England was broadly neutral too – so we won’t quote those either.
And, as the Leave campaign are pointing out, the Chancellor hardly has much of a track record in forecasting economic growth. He can’t get it right 14 months ahead, never mind 14 years.
No, this is meaningless soundbites meant to scare us in to voting to stay and should be dismissed as such.
Project Fear rolls on…